This weeks’ instalment of Game Notes features the Fife Flyers hosting the Belfast Giants in a crucial cup clash for group B, that may go on to determine either the final seeded position or help the chasing pack jostle for it later on.
Tale of the Tape
Giants lead their group with 16 points from 9GP, also the most of the challenge cup this far.
Flyers are in second place, with 9 points from 8GP and would feel bullish for claiming more after their recent heroics against stronger teams in the last few weeks.
Giants have of course qualified for at least the quarter final single leg clash, if Fife win and claim wins in their remaining games, they could give Giants a run for the automatic position.
Amongst the Scottish clubs, their combined regulation wins are still less than Giants’ overall, so an accepted view is that they have qualified in full regardless, lest, there are still games to play and each one is crucial.
Breakdowns
In the cup, Giants’ enormous lead in their own group is also backed up by the stats, as to be expected, with a goal differential of +26, Flyers meanwhile is minus three.
They also lead the entire cup competition on the power play with 32% and are 100% on the PK from 20 penalties. In contrast, Flyers have gone on the PP on 21 occasions, managing a 6th overall for 19% and killed 28 penalties at a rate of 85.75, putting them joint third.
Flyers have picked up 2 wins from their last 5GP in the cup, two lost to their opponents this evening, outscored at 2:11.
Giants meanwhile in their L5GP, have lost just once, which ironically was the only regulation win for embattled Clan this season.
Crystal Ball?
Last week, I also created a formula and working database as a workbook to see if win probabilities could be predicted successfully.
The caveat, is that this is solely based on regular season action. However, it is still something to look into, more for entertainment, rather than analytical projection.
Here is an outlook for the pre-game projection for win probabilities;
Game Score & Report
It was a tentative start, with a lot of posturing, poise and patience either end, as both teams looked to wait for a mistake to be made, then pounce.
It was clear that every puck carried into the home teams’ zone was going to be challenged and that the visitors opted for control, rather than run and gun in this midweek match up for points in the cup.
That mistake was eventually made by the visitors on their own PP, as a puck bounced off the half boards behind the net, with an errant pass to the blue liners not being picked up and Cole Stewart gleefully collected, then sent it home.
It was a catastrophic error of judgement from Whistle and his defenders, with no communication, leaving an unchecked PK’er free reign to poach and claim the lead.
It took until just over six minutes for the home team to extend their lead, as Giants failed to clear their zone, with Mika Partenen finding twine with a sleek backhander in the low slot area.
Giants did answer back through Conway on a well worked power play marker, that allowed the hosts to take a slender lead into the second intermission.
Shortly after the third frame started, Petizian found the net, again in the low slow area to re-extend their two goal lead and put the Giants under more pressure.
Giants had done well across the middle frame to slow the Flyers down and maintain an 11 SOG average, however, even with another PPG, this time from Morten Jensen, they became boxed out time and again, losing the chance battled 3:7 against their hosts.
Whistle also made a dangerous and highly errant play up the ice to try and disrupt a chance, eventually being replaced by Kupsky in the third, it is likely a collarbone injury for another poor display of judgement.
It made for considerably lower team game scores overall, with Giants claiming an edge for winning more face offs, much to their push late in the third seeing more FOW’s at an increased rate and grabbing two crucial PPG’s, adding a little of extra scoring weight.
A noticeable gap in the stats is the lack of blocked shots each way – this was reflective of a game that was underwhelming for the most part, as Flyers were allowed to skate with a little more freedom around the wings.
Giants meanwhile, opted to move the puck at a leisurely pace, rather than being direct with OZ possession, especially from transitional plays.
Individual efforts meanwhile shown that despite defeat and an underwhelming performance, Giants players fared stronger, as momentum eventually swung their way, chance generation, face offs and staying out of the box proved to be crucial.
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