A look Ahead to the Weekend

League Record So Far; 5 – 1 – 1, 11pts, 3rd Place

L5GP; 3 – 1 – 1

CARDIFF, WALES – Cardiff Devils host rivals Belfast Giants Friday night at home in the Vindico before to hit the road vs current league leaders and fierce foes, Sheffield Steelers.

It is a big weekend for the good guys, as they look to undo two dents on their recent form records and put themselves firmly at the forefront of being an early contender.

Complete capitulation in results, could see them adrift an early mid table battle, with an increased poor record against both teams in recent years.

First up, Belfast Giants

The first meeting was a carbon copy of their first from the previous campaign, a road defeat, despite an early lead.

Giants boxed out the Devils stoically across their blue line, stifling zone entries and eventually turned the game over physically, to skate away with a close, but comfortable win.

Despite this, the teams ended pretty evenly on shot attempts (53) and SOG, 32:33 in favour of Giants. It was on the dots where there was a clear split, which lends toward how the game tilted.

Their forwards have a clear grade above the current Devils group, which is shown in their overall xG% across the top 6 of both teams in comparison, more on this further on.

In fact, Devils technically didn’t score their only goal, despite a great driving play by Kontos, a Giants blue liner swiped it past his own goalie. That was the last dangerous attack Devils made in that game.

This was a familiar watch from the previous season, which saw the Giants decimate the Devils as the campaign wore on, despite better showings by the good guys in the earlier games, ones they should have won and if so, different league champions outright.

For the current group, they need to find a way to beat this team, by attacking the net with pace, boxing out their own mid slot and to stop a speculative shooting habit as well as a timid dump and chase around the half boards.

It hasn’t worked and it is inconceivable how the same method and tactics continue to be elected as the strategy to approach this team.

Between their top 6 forwards, there isn’t much in actual goals scored in terms of the average, with Giants ahead 2 compared to 1.8 for Devils. This is reflected in their GFA’s with Devils edging this 2.17 to 2.50 respectively.

Devils have played a game more, so even though the team just about edges their opponents, Giants even by the smallest metric has that edge in being a step above in goals.

Devils’ strongest point so far has been their defence and in net, with both Stoever and Bowns doing amazing work, notching shutouts at a higher rate this season, than in previous tandems.

Breaking Down the Key Differences

The line defence will need to remain focused to deny sharp shooters like Goodwin and Conway a chance at net. Both teams have the same GA (11), so it will come down to the finer details between them.

Conway leads the line ups in shots made (67) with a Corsi at a low 28.7% as a result, however, his accuracy lands at 40.3% overall to date, he is still a threat compared to most of the Devils points scorers so far.

Kawaguchi (44.6%) and Barrow (43.4%) are their respective team leaders in Corsi currently, accounting for all shots made divided by SOG per player.

The lowest shooting efficiency so far as expected is MacDonald at 4.16%. In fact, last seasons’ over-used top line of MacDonald – Olischefski – Sanford are the lowest performers in this metric, with 4 goals between them.

There isnt much surprise there, as not only should these players be more productive, they need to be more dynamic with that production, particularly from zone entries.

*CF = SOG/(Shots+SOG)x100 for standard Corsi. It is more difficult to know true Corsi% by the league stats website, as there is no indication for shots against per player whilst on ice and at 5v5.

The relative sub 60% so far accounts for many factors, such as rate of shots on net (SOG), total shots made and the general, relative quality of the player. These aren’t NHL’ers after all.

Although the league does track zone for shots, there isn’t a method yet that details shot type (wrist, snap, slap etc).

In terms of shot efficiency Giants lead in this factor at 12.2% compared to Devils at 9.9% (Based on top 6 forwards by goals scored so far this season in regular EIHL games).

Their overall accuracy for chances on net is separated by 1.52% in favour of Giants. Again, really fine margins.

As for the goalies, Bowns leads in all measures from GAA and SV%, but how likely are teams likely to score on them?

There is currently a 44.4% chance for a player or team to score on Bowns, whereas Whistle, thanks to his last game vs Steelers, has dipped at 36.8%. It would have been much lower up until that game.

Only Greenfield has a greater chance of goals against at 65% flat, as Steelers have conceded more so far. The issue both teams have had so far vs Steelers, is lack of ability to score, averaging at 2.4 and 2.6 goals a game respectively. Steelers hold 4.2 goals in their L5GP on average, above their GFA at the current rate.

Devils are a fraction below, whereas Giants are a fraction above theirs going into their clash Friday.

Next up, on the road, vs Steelers

You would have to go back to October 1st 2023 to see a Devils win in regular season at Sheffield, it hasn’t been a good place for Devils teams since then.

In the cup scenarios, they may have found some fortune in the knockout stages, but usually Devils lose away and win at home.

Putting in a performance vs Giants is not their only expectation to meet early on this campaign, but to also snap the skid in Sheffield, just as they have done in Nottingham already.

Steelers have already made some changes in their personnel, adding Clans Mitch Heard and releasing Nick Seitz who signed at Flames. They continue to play well and find the net at a rampant pace, outscoring Devils 21:13 so far in their last 5GP.

If Giants win in Cardiff, they will go to within a point of the Devils, making this game even more crucial to build that early momentum and put any doubters at bay.

Steelers would be expecting to win this one, as their home record and recent performances dictate it.

Further more, is their PP, which stands at a whopping 40%. Giants are the lowest scoring in this area with double figures at 15%. Devils meanwhile, languish second bottom overall with 5.56% after finally notching their only PPG of the season last week vs Storm.

Since then, they are now at 0/5 in all EIHL competitions.

1 in 18 is woeful. Steelers have 8 in 20. The habits need to change.

Key Areas to Focus On

1. The first and foremost area to focus on is to get shots on net as quick as possible from the zone entries made vs Giants. They have been easily boxed out in every game both league and cup the past calendar year and there has been little change to this approach.

Putting Whistle under pressure and the beleaguered Giants defence to work would reap some benefits and build some confidence.

2. Take a lead, add to it – Many times Devils have found themselves ahead early on, especially against rivals or on the road. Yet fail to capitalise on that and instead elect to sit back and absorb pressure. That relentless energy has completely dissipated since the win vs Flames in the cup at the start of the season.

3. Improve shot effectiveness – having a stack of chances each game might look good, however unless they start to get converted, they will quickly find themselves in desperation each game and it might even become a heavy factor come the end of the campaign.

It is frustrating having over 70 shot attempts at home when there is scant conversion, especially at 5v5, let alone on the PP.

While there is a balance between taking your time to find the right shot and taking too much time to shoot in general, that balance isn’t delicate.

Throwing the puck at the net and having ‘looks’ rarely reaps rewards, forwards need to be more direct, more dynamic and get to the net. After all, that is how Olischefski snapped his scoreless streak.

4. Key players need to step up – A couple of players snapped some embarrassingly long scoreless streaks in the past couple of games, where if they had played elsewhere in Europe at least, they would have been released by now.

The symptoms continue, despite some great work by the likes of Barrow and Brandt, there are some others who really should be leading the way.

This comes from veteran blue liner Gleason Fournier (2) and last seasons points leader, Josh MacDonald (2), as they have failed to make a mark yet and add in this department.

The rise of some players like Barrow and Brandt are welcome, but as others, especially newer skaters are here and there or nowhere at all, then veteran, known playmakers need to be that difference.

5. Bring back the physicality – Devils were actually out hit at home vs Storm last week as they danced around the OZ and tried as many looks on net as possible. In the end, the game ended up settled by a single goal and their resulting game on the road was a dead rubber.

Prior to that, as mentioned already, they were held at bay with ease on the road in Belfast and have to face the same team again.

You would expect this match up to be scouted before July was even reached in the offseason. But there we are. Same team, new coach, same outcome.

This is a chance to make a statement and really provide a boost for the whole roster and fanbase.