Cup Home Stand: Devils Have Chance to Progress on Home Ice

Challenge Cup So Far; 5 – 1 – 0; 10pts, 1st Place, Win Percentage; 83%

Devils host Blaze first on Saturday night before facing off against rampant Panthers on Sunday, in what could be the team signing off on qualification early in the group stages, maintaining the best win% overall so far.

Their opponents however, are tricky customers and Devils have faced defeat and victory vs their opponents on the road, but, they are now the targets to beat.

Building It Up

The magic number for group stage wins was 6 last season, across any capacity (regulation, shootout, OT), which coincided with he changes for this season, that the top two progress vs win%, with the best overall having a choice of home or away in the first leg of the knockouts.

This is the perfect opportunity for the club to secure this stage with two road games to spare at least, so once again, their destiny is in their hands, but previous situations saw them fall short in the end or, like last season, they had to turn over a 4 goal deficit to go 6 unanswered vs Panthers to qualify, putting their rivals Blaze out in the process.

Current form suggests that Panthers would be the trickier team to play against, as some of their newly signed stars have started to open their accounts for the scoresheets and in good time as well.

Meanwhile, Blaze as slightly dipped after an impressive start, but as we know, form is temporary.

Power Rankings via EIHL Face-Off Podcast from last week

A Look at Blaze

Blaze are the only team to defeat the Devils so far this season, with a narrow win against the flow of play at the Skydome, with Matt Robson continuing to be their best investment for quite some time.

It brought the Devils crashing back down to earth following a rare demolition job of Guildford Flames the Friday before it, immediately reopening a call of question of whether there was any real improvement in terms of goal scoring.

It might just be a feature that no one really discussed in the offseason, as the team currently have the best defensive record and have only conceded 9 in 6GP.

This will be a massive feature on the weekend, as both teams have managed a similar output in terms of offence (18), with Devils just 4 ahead and that is after the 7:1 dousing of this seasons strugglers.

As mentioned, the implications and therefore even some lingering motivations will be a massive factor, in what has been the most exciting cup competition to date.

As mentioned, Devils overcame the Panthers from a big deficit to progress automatically in their group, which signalled the end of the cup run for the upstart Blaze in the same process.

Bragging rights are well earned and now they are being held up for a big weekend of hockey at home.

Blaze have notched some scalps already, including a shutout win in Sheffield before equally being humbled at home, being shutout by the Panthers.

Similar to Devils, they had a huge series vs Storm, splitting the points, in two high scoring affairs.

Their goal scoring has dropped off massively however, seeing a sharp decline and low average of 1.3 goals per game vs stronger weighted opposition.

The chart above outlines the decline rate and trend of goal scoring over the current group stage for Blaze, demonstrating a sharp drop off

This doesn’t set anything in stone, for at least 3 good reasons. One, it is hockey. Two, it is cup hockey and Three, it is vs the Devils. Anything can happen, but following the recent loss on the road, the home team would be equally motivated.

A Look at Panthers

Panthers started off with a stutter, with a lot of imbalance throughout their line up and lack of confidence in net, but since the first week, they have grown and are currently the hottest team after an EIHL 6 point week.

They are currently at .500 in the cup with 3 wins and 3 losses, so after a very positive week in the EIHL, they will look to continue in the cup and cause an upset on Welsh ice to avenge a rare defeat vs Devils on theirs.

Their trajectory has all the makings for a very elite game that would likely be like a tactical arm wrestle, however, Panthers have struggled defensively, compared to Devils.

Their slow start went cap in hand with this leagues’ most controversial player, Chase Pearson, whom last week dazzled across the board and really started, scrambling, some heads.

However, despite his 6 goal week, he has been ruled for the next few weeks due to an upper body injury. Perhaps some egg whites whipped with chamomile lotion or some other witchcraft could heal him?

Despite having an impressive arsenal of goal scoring threats, their power play at this point is amongst the lowest for even this stage of the season or any.

They are nearly exactly at Fife’s levels on the power play, at just 5% from 20 penalty chances. Along with that, their PK doesn’t fair so well, at 75%, 2nd last, with Giants also struggling there.

To contrast, so far Devils are 3rd overall in both categories.

This is a key area for them to focus, as Devils currently have the worst record in discipline, especially after last weekends battle against the Storm, with an unsurprising 21 PIMS/Game average.

Despite an extremely poor start for the Panthers, their gamble on experience for their back up, Kevin Carr seems to have steadied the ship in some capacity, but will he be able to maintain his current 2GAA and 94 SV%? Or would the good guys hope to face off against Grande, who returned to league action with an all but very quiet night vs Flames?

How the Devils Look

The team have battled their way to the top of Group A and put themselves in a commanding position, needing at least one more win to theoretically secure progression, if they maintain their current win% pace.

Of the games played, they have only put away one team convincingly, however, that seems to be a pattern for that team overall so far this early season, which doesn’t make the victory all that much.

Going into these games with home ice advantage shouldn’t make anyone believe they are winners already, as both of their opponents have had goos success here and will definitely look to dent the good guys’ form.

Although they marginally lead their group offensively, they are third overall across the board, behind Giants and Stars in the GFA category, with just 3.67.

In comparison to the Russell Era, they are quite behind, which was a 4.25 average at this stage, strengthening the case for a quality goal scorer, however, it can be argued that this is their record so far, without legendary captain and Devil, The Goat Joey Martin.

An updated look at the goal-pace average and where the team currently stands after 6 games so far in the Challenge cup

it goes without saying that you have to play what is in front of you, so with the low scoring affair last weekend vs Storm, which was definitely a game plan from them to slow down the speedsters and heavy forecheckers of the men in red, it paid off in the stats, but Devils stood on business and skated off with maximum points.

Their biggest overhaul during the offseason was on the back end, with 4 new blue liners, although one had since departed back home to Fife.

Even still, across the board, they have been massive improvements.

Estes (10) currently leads the challenge cup points league in the Devils camp, one point off the top scorers and would be tied with Pearson going into this weekend, but as mentioned, he is out of action for a few weeks.

Sanford however, had started hot, but has reverted to type in so many words, but still over a point per game (8), so with the current trend, he should get on the board and continue to put the heat to the sauce.

Similarly, Kontos (7) is in a similar form pattern as his new line mate, hardly surprising as they could barely play their game last weekend, so the stop-start trend line can be automatically assumed to align with that brace of games.

One player who has flown under the radar for many, in terms of production, is Jimmy Oligny, who has to be one of the best additions in terms of blue liners for the club. Also at 7 points in 6GP, he is heading into this homes stand weekend on back to back multi-point games,

Defensively, he is one of the smartest to play for the club since Tyson Strachan, with their CV’s, that shouldn’t come as a shock to anyone.

After 6GP, there are no players who have scored more than 3 goals for the Devils, with 5 players currently at that level. This will certainly change over the weekend, but it does show there isn’t a lot of depth or proficiency just yet.

Defensively is how they are winning games, something a very experienced coach can foster and at this early stage of the campaign, the Devils faithful are being reminded that is how to win.

Not a third period come back or gritted games to OT’s. The best teams win from the back end. So, for all the talk of goal scorers, yes there isn’t a bonafide threat and no, the current squad hasn’t started to show any signs of improving.

So far, it isn’t an issue, as defensively, they have proven to be the strongest in the league overall.

Ones to Watch

Coventry Blaze

It goes without saying that Matt Gleason has been a gem of a find, a season after they also found the likes of Chase Gresock, for example.

Gleason currently has 8 points from 6GP and has some success on the PP with a man advantage marker. He was on a 4 game point streak until his team got shut out vs Panthers last weekend, so would be looking to reignite that point streak immediately.

Nottingham Panthers

Matthew Marcinew has been one under the radar for many, but when he was announced, I knew he added to an impressive roster of players that can freely score at will.

He is on a 5 game point streak in all EIHL competitions, at a point per game pace (7), including 4 goals to the good.

They are without a star player for all sorts of reasons, but so are the Devils (Martin), however they have a dangerous set of options and with Marcinew, he would be one to focus on.